Tremors of the East African Community towards the Upcoming new members: A Case of an incepted Southern Sudan and prospect of the DRC.

 
Article Type: Journal Article
 
Author’s: Dr. Philemon Sengati
 
Affiliation:
Dr. Philemon Sengati
The University of Dodoma
P.O. Box 395, Dodoma- Tanzania

Tremors of the East African Community
 
Abstract
This article endeavors to explicate the inevitable tremors conceived in the East Africa Community integration with the inception and prospective addition of new members to join the integration scheme. These new developments are happening while each of the five former members ( Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda) are experiencing  huddles to cross over before they allow the invitation of external forces (new members) intervention which will add more challenges to the integration. This piece argues for a fragile potential EAC because of the many reasons including conflicting forces to expanding markets and competitive advantages by inviting new members, which challenges the bonding forces and a risk of exposure to interest of big nations.  The armed conflict in Sudan and Burundi tests the strength of the community in terms its ability to accept new members while ensuring peace and security as part of the objective of the EAC. And indeed the political huddles to the majority of the EAC members like Tanzania with cancellation and recalling of a new election in Zanzibar. In Rwanda the constitutional change to allow more  leadership tenure in power  to president Kagame while in Kenya the threats of Al Shabab attacks  and more the incidence of an aborted election in Uganda continue to retard efforts toward a more stable and composed EAC. The materials used in this paper are secondary in nature obtained through review of books, literature and articles. While a qualitative method to the analysis specifically the thematic analysis to describe issue on investigation was employed in the paper. The paper recommend recommitment of the EAC to its founding principle on acceptability of new entry in the integration, because the main issue here may not be a big number of countries forming the EAC, but the disparities between South Sudan and DRC to the rest of EAC members in the sense that, several domestic characteristics of state, influence the success of regional integration.  
Key word: The East African Community, Tremors, Political Federation
 
Introduction
African frontrunners have long recognized the need for closer regional connections as a way to overcome the fragmentation of the continent which is one of the major constrictions towards its economic development. The economic integration of Africa was the central theme of the 1980 Lagos Plan of Action, the special United Nations Session on Africa in 1986 and numerous other high level statements and reports on African policy and development strategy (Ojo et all, 1985), More recently it has found expression in the creation of the Africa Union and regional and sub-regional integration (Munster, 2009).
 
In view of the above  Sub-regional and regional groupings is a dominating agenda to the attainment of socio economic, political development; the approaches complements as necessity  for improving Africa’s competitiveness, mindful of the fact that as markets most African countries are small by standing independently (EAC Annual Trade Report, 2008).  In line with the vision and objectives of the region, East African Community was formed to create a well-connected, economically prosperous and peaceful region by supporting both public and private sector engaged in the regional integration process (Munster, 2009).
 
The Republic of Southern Sudan joined recently on March 2016 at the ordinary EAC summit held in Arusha Tanzania, and therefore making a total of six countries in the region (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and South Sudan) which form the EAC integration. -The Permanent Tripartite Commission for East African Co-operation was first formed in 1967, but collapsed in 1977 due to political differences among the participating countries; again it was re-established in January 2001 by a Treaty, which entered into force on 7 July 2000-
 “One people, one destiny” – so runs the slogan of the East African Community (EAC), which was re-established in 2001. The recent conceived EAC will comprise 13 countries: Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda and, as of 3rd March 2016, the newly-independent Republic of South-Sudan was declared new member in the capital of EAC at the Summit of the EAC. It draws on the analyses and conclusions of various sector studies and benefits from discussions with the country and regional stakeholders (Munster, 2009). At the same time, it pays close attention to specific concerns in the region such as fragility, insecurity, cross-border conflicts, governance challenges, as well as cross-cutting issues related to gender, the environment and climate change.
 
The EAC is a key driver of the regional integration process and has achieved positive results, including a common market status in July 2010. The target date for establishing a monetary union was 2012. The vision of EAC is to create a prosperous, competitive, secure and politically united Eastern Africa. The objective, according to Article 5 (1) of the Treaty, is to develop policies and programs aimed at widening and deepening cooperation among the Partner States in political, economic, social and cultural fields, research and technology, defense, security and legal and judicial affairs for mutual benefit (EAC Annual Trade Report, 2008).
 
The East African Community is organized into different organs provided in the Treaty which formed the integration and are found in Chapter III Article 9(1) of the union Charter. These organs include, the Summit of the EAC that consists of the Heads of State of the Partner States and at present these are:
“ President Pierre Nkurunzinza of Burundi, President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, President Dr. John Pombe Magufuli of  Tanzania, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda and Salvakil of Republic of Southern Sudan”. The six presidents take the Chair of the Summit in turns of one year and the present chairperson of the Summit is Dr. John Pombe Magufuli of Tanzania. It is equally important to unravel that, the Summit meets at least once in each year (Chapter Four Article 10 of the EAC Charter of, 1999).

The other organ of the East African Community is the Council of Ministers consisting of the ministers for regional co-operation of each Partner States and other ministers to be determined by the Partner States. The Council of Ministers meets twice a year; one of the meetings is held immediately preceding a Summit Meeting (Chapter Five Article 13 Charter of the East African Community). In connection to this organ, there is a Co-ordination Committee consists of the Permanent Secretaries responsible for regional co-operation in each Partner State. It reports to the Council of Ministers and co-ordinates the activities of the Sectorial Committees (The EAC Charter of 1999, Chapter 6 (Article 17).
There is another organ called Sectorial Committees of the EAC which reports to the Co-ordination Committee and are established by the Council of Ministers. Their task is to prepare programmes and to implement the objectives of the Treaty (Chapter 7 (Article 18) of the 1999 Charter of the EAC). Another organ is the East African Court of Justice has the major responsibility to ensure the adherence to law in the interpretation and application of and compliance with the Treaty. This includes for example disputes between Partner States regarding the Treaty, disputes between the Community and its employees or the compliance of national laws with the Treaty (Chapter 8 (Article 23) of the 1999 EAC Charter).

The East African Legislative Assembly is the Parliament of the East African Community. It has 52 members – nine members from each Partner State – plus 7 ex-officio members, namely the five Ministers responsible for regional co-operation, the Secretary General and the Counsel to the Community (Chapter 9 (Article 48) of the 1999 EAC Charter). The Secretariat is the executive organ of the EAC and runs the day-to-day business. It is headed by the Secretary General. He is supported by four Deputy Secretary Generals who deputies for him and have the following special responsibilities. The Counsel to the Community is appointed by the Council of Ministers and acts as the principal legal adviser to the Community. The Counsel is also entitled to appear in the Courts of the Partner States in matters regarding the Community and its Treaty (Chapter 10 (Article 66) of the 1999 EAC Charter).
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There are other autonomous institutions with special responsibilities to perform in the EAC, one of which is the Lake Victoria Basin Commission, this oversees the management and development of Lake Victoria Basin and serves as a centre for promotion of investments and information sharing among the various stakeholders. Its headquarters are situated in Kisumu, Kenya. The other institution is Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization (LVFO), this coordinates fishery issues in Lake Victoria to ensure that fish and fish products are available in East Africa and has access to international markets (Chapter Four Article 10 of the EAC Charter of 1999).
The other institution is called Inter-University Council of East Africa (IUCEA),
IUCEA encourages and develops mutually beneficial collaboration between member universities and Governments and other public and private organizations.
East African Development Bank (EADB). EADB was established in 1967 to redress the development disparities between the member states of the former East African Community. EADB has a critical role to play in setting up the East African Common Market in terms of mobilizing external lendable resources for the East African Market. Civil Aviation Safety and Security Oversight Agency (CASSOA).CASSOA is a specialized agency of the East Community responsible for ensuring the development of safe and secure civil aviation system in the region. The main objectives of the Agency are to ensure coordinated development of an effective and sustainable civil aviation safety and security oversight infrastructure in the Community (Chapter Four Article 10 of the EAC Charter of 1999).
Generally the community is organized and vision to a political federation in the future. The progress is underway through customs union, common market, common currency, and harmonization of policies toward a political integration. However this journey goes hand in hand with looking for opportunities to expand membership and so doing adding market potential and other integration advantages. This article anticipates tremors in future endeavors of the EAC and assessed the danger of having a fragile community if the admission of new members is done with disregard of the criteria set in the treaty for inception of new membership. In this dimension it evaluates the recent admission of the Republic of South Sudan and prospective admission of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
 
Issue on board
The EAC has, as Meredith (2005) argues, realized tremendous progress in regional co-operation and significant impact on regional development. In real growth terms, the region’s combined GDP has risen to $ 75 billion, up from $ 20 billion in 1999. Following the enlargement of the EAC in 2007, the EAC region now boasts a sizeable market of a combined population of 130 million. The membership of the EAC has expanded from the original three, Kenya Uganda and Tanzania, to the current six members. - -  Beyond this success, EAC is today considering further enlargement to allow new members, In this sense the DRC, and  Somalia a are among the countries of eastern, central and southern Africa that have indicated interest to join the EAC integration scheme..
According to EAC treaty (2002:12-13):
 “The objectives of the East African Community shall be to develop policies and programmes aimed at widening and deepening co-operation among partner states in political, economic, social and cultural fields, research and technology, defense, security and legal and judicial affairs, for their mutual benefit.”
However, according to the EAC Treaty and rules of procedure for admission of a new country as full member, certain criteria have to be met. They include: acceptance of the community as set out in the treaty, adherence to the universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice, potential contribution to the strengthening of integration with the East African region, geographical proximity to and interdependence between it and EAC partner states, establishment an d maintenance of a market driven economy, and compatibility of social and economic policies with those of the community ( EAC Treaty).
Despite Southern Sudan reception and inception in the EAC on 3rd March 2016 truly the newly sovereign state does not qualify these conditions and cannot be considered as relevant member in the EAC. The country faces serious development and governance challenges and many observers assert that it will take many years to achieve a sustained economic growth in this country. The country needs to adopt and implement principles of governance, establish and maintain a market driven economy as well as efficient social and economic policies before expecting to gain from it
s EAC membership. That is why in this paper we argue for a fragile EAC in the future as more new members are anticipated to join like the DRC and Somalia with worse domestic condition politically, socially and economically. Respectively the paper recommends genuine recommitment of the EAC to its founding principle in terms of new entry in the integration.
 
Theoretical and Empirical Debate
The theory of regional integration has been associated with Haas (1950) a prominent neo-functionalist known for his concept of “The uniting of Europe”. This is because Europe remained the focal point for most of the works on regional integration theory although in the recent past the application of integration theory to Latin America, Africa and Asia has increased. Haas and Schmitter (1961) developed a conceptual framework that has spread the process of regional integration beyond Europe in industrial and non-industrial settings with a concept approach that is applicable to both. The basic postulation of neo functionalists is the decline of nationalism and nation-states and their replacing by large units more suited for the roles they play in society. The neo functionalist thus does not see nation-states as units of analysis but the whole region as a unit. Modern neo-functionalist who were inspired by European integration still exist and put emphasis on supranational institutions, among them are Sandholz and Sweet (1997) and multilevel governance, Marks, Hooghe and Blank (1996) among the opponents of regional integration was Haas himself, Lindberg and Scheingold. This was after the European integration process started to experience a crisis in the mid 1960s. Haas and these scholars concluded that his theory was too deterministic and Haas admitted that he had not foreseen a rebirth of nationalism and resilience of sovereign nation-states within functionalist organization of supra-national institutions referred to as regionalism.
Lindberg and Scheingold singled out some of the major mechanisms and dynamics. It was concluded that neo-functionalists had not studied domestic politics sufficiently and that they could have exaggerated the role of supranational institutions. The other opponent of neo-functionalism is Pierson, Pollock (1996), Schneider and Aspinwall (2011) who used the new institutionalism approach to integration studies. According to Pierson there are gaps that emerge among the member states which are difficult to close. These gaps are created by autonomous action of integration institutions, the restricted time horizons of political decisions makers, unanticipated consequences and shifts in policy preferences of governments.
This makes the gaps very difficult to close because of the reluctance of supranational actors, institutional barriers to reform and various costs to change. Due to this gaps and the difficulty in closing them, Pieson, Pollock and Scheneider and Aspinwall argue that this forms the foundation of disintegration rather than integration. Therefore these authors see nothing than disintegration as states pursue their own agenda defined as state interest among community of states. This disintegration and the consequent pursued by individual interest is therefore a source of disharmony since it is equivalent to a chaotic state of nature. With this state of nature, states are likely to disagree and by extension war erupts. The war is a war in a whole community of states. As states push and shove over their interests, there is likely war in the whole community while in the individual states, there will be peace. This in Nye phrase is the “peace in parts”. The parts are individual states which internally are at peace but externally in relation to other states are not, as each state attempts to promote and protect its own self interests, there is no peace i.e. the states are in a state of war always in their protection and promotion of self interest. Nye’s thesis rests on rather simple question of how there can be integration as proposed by neo-functionalists when there is no peace in the whole but only in the parts. Rather how can the peace existent in parts be utilized to guarantee peace in the whole. Simply how can states be at peace while they all pursue their own self interest in the same environment? This according to Nye’s thesis is impossibility. This theory is relevant because it talks about collective decision making. Policies in EAC are determined by consensus which covers a varying number of functional areas. Ernst Haas came up with the concept of spillover which “refers to a situation in which a given action, related to specific goals, creates a situation in which the original goals can be assured only after taking further actions, which in turn create a further condition and a need for more action and so forth”60. This refers to policies that are agreed upon and the partner states need to implement them for the prosperity and continuous existence of the integration.
 
Liberalism is another theory related with the formation of the East African Community. Liberals argue that the universal condition of world politics is globalization. States are, and always have been, embedded in a domestic and transnational society, which creates incentives for economic, social and cultural interaction across borders. State policy may facilitate or block such interactions. Some domestic groups may benefit from or be harmed by such policies, and they pressure government accordingly for policies that facilitate realization of their goals. These social pressures, transmitted through domestic political institutions, define "state preferences" –that is, the set of substantive social purposes that motivate foreign policy (Hurrel, 1995).
Mukandala (2000) argues that State preferences give governments an underlying stake in the international issues they face. Since the domestic and transnational social context in which states are embed
ded varies greatly across space and time, so do state preferences. Without such social concerns that transcend state borders, states would have no rational incentive to engage in world politics at all, but would simply devote their resources to isolated existence. To motivate conflict, cooperation, or any other costly foreign policy action, states must possess sufficiently intense state preferences. The resulting globalization-induced variation in social demands, and thus state preferences, is a fundamental cause of state behavior in world politics (Durgesh, 1984). This is the central insight of liberal international relations theory. It can be expressed colloquially in various ways: “What matters most is what states want, not how they get it- “Ends are more important than means.”
Three specific variants of liberal theory are defined by particular types of preferences, their variation, and their impact on state behavior. Ideational liberal theories link state behavior to varied conceptions of desirable forms of cultural, political, socioeconomic order. Commercial liberal theories stress economic interdependence, including many variants of "endogenous policy theory." Republican liberal theories stress the role of domestic representative institutions, elites and leadership dynamics, and executive-legislative relations. Such theories were first conceived by prescient liberals such as Immanuel Kant, Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, John Hobson, Woodrow Wilson, and John Maynard Keynes-writing well before the deep causes (independent variables) they stress (e.g. democratization, industrialization, nationalism, and welfare provision) were widespread (Duncan, 2008)
What basic assumptions underlie the liberal approach? Two assumptions liberal theory makes are the assumptions of anarchy and rationality. Specifically, states (or other political actors) exist in an anarchic environment and they generally act in a broadly rational way in making decisions. The anarchy assumption means that political actors exist in the distinctive environment of international politics, without a world government or any other authority with a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. They must engage in self-help.  The rationality assumption means that state leaders and their domestic supporters engage in foreign policy for the instrumental purpose of securing benefits provided by (or avoiding costs imposed by) actors outside of their borders, and in making such calculations, states seek to deploy the most cost-effective means to achieve whatever their ends (preferences) may be (Daniel,1984).
 Liberal theory shares the first (anarchy) assumption with almost all international relations theories, and it shares the second (rationality) assumption with realism and institutionalism, but not non-rationalist process theories. The second core assumption shared by liberal theories is that the interdependence among of state preferences influences state behavior. Rather than treating preferences as a fixed constant, as do realists or institutionalisms, liberals seek to explain variation in preferences and its significance for world politics. The precise distribution and nature of the “stakes” explains differences in state policy and behavior (Willis, K. 2005).
States, liberals argue, orient their behavior to the precise nature of these underlying preferences: compatible or conflictual, intense or weak, and their precise scope. States require a “social purpose” a perceived underlying stake in the matter at hand in order to pay any attention to international affairs, let alone to provoke conflict, inaugurate cooperation, or take any other significant foreign policy action. If there is no such interdependence among state objectives, a rational state will conduct no international relations, satisfying itself with an isolated and autarkic existence. Conflictual goals increase the incentive for political disputes. Convergence of underlying preferences creates the preconditions for peaceful coexistence or cooperation (Duncan, 2008).
 Rational choice Theory is also one of the theories related with the formation of East African Community. An economic principle that assumes that individuals always make prudent and logical decisions that provide them with the greatest benefit or satisfaction and that are in their highest self-interest. Most mainstream economic assumptions and theories are based on rational choice theory (Ojo et al. 1985). Indeed, the East African Community might have put in perspectives rational choice theory in devising coercive apparatuses among member states such like the Interpol-to crack down criminality beyond borders. The road map into the formation of East African Monetary fund is related with the concept of rational choice theory which looks into maximizing members’ states advantage or gain, and to minimize their disadvantage or loss.
Realism is the last theory in the analysis of the formation of East African Community. Descriptive political realism commonly holds that the international community is characterized by anarchy, since there is no overriding world government that enforces a common code of rules. Whilst this anarchy need not be chaotic, for various member states of the international community may engage in treaties or in trading patterns that generate an order of sorts, most theorists conclude that law or morality does not apply beyond the nation’s boundaries (Holst, 1990).
Arguably political realism supports Hobbes’s view of the state of nature, namely that the relations between self-seeking political entities are necessarily a-moral. Hobbes asserts that without a presiding government to legislate codes of conduct, no morality or justice can exist: “Where there is no common Power, there is
no Law, no justice if there be no power erected, or not great enough for our security; every man will and may lawfully rely on his own strength and art, for caution against all other men. In this case integration of countries is the best strategies to enforce moral behaviors or acts amongst actors within regional agreements (Pentland, 1973).
Either descriptive political realism is true or it is false. If it is true, it does not follow, however, that morality ought not to be applied to international affairs; what ought to be does not always follow from what is. A strong form of descriptive political realism maintains that nations are necessarily self-seeking, that they can only form foreign policy in terms of what the nation can gain, and cannot, by their very nature, cast aside their own interests. However, if descriptive realism is held, it is as a closed theory, which means that it can refute all counter-factual evidence on its own terms (for example, evidence of a nation offering support to a neighbor as an ostensible act of altruism, is refuted by pointing to some self-serving motive the giving nation presumably has it would increase trade, it would gain an important ally, it would feel guilty if it didn’t, and so on), then any attempt to introduce morality into international affairs would prove futile (Breen,  and  Rittman, 1995).
 Examining the soundness of descriptive political realism depends on the possibility of knowing political motives, which in turn means knowing the motives of the various officers of the state and diplomats. The complexity of the relationship between officers’ actions, their motives, subterfuge, and actual foreign policy makes this a difficult if not impossible task, one for historians rather than philosophers. Logically, the closed nature of descriptive realism implies that a contrary proposition that nations serve no interests at all, or can only serve the interests of others, could be just as valid.
Realism under the East African Community hinges on the assumption that some leaders, because of their ethnic background, would always think of remaining in power and controlling others. It has been assumed that President Museveni and Kagame belong to Tutsi ethnic background. The motive behind Tutsi generation is hegemonic power. They (Tutsi) have a propensity of ruling others forever and ever more. Example of tyrannical utterance once put forward by Museveni justifies this contention.  President Museveni has been in power for almost 28 consecutive years 40 per cent of his lifetime. Given the country’s very young population, 75 per cent of Ugandans have only had one president all their life. When asked if he would run again in 2016, Museveni’s response was, “one of the real points for me politically is the East African Federation. I cannot leave this issue if I think there is a possibility of advancing it. This is something I have been working for all my time in politics and is one of the reasons why I continue to be in power (The guardian 17 August 2015)
This is the classic case of a leader thinking that he is indispensable, a very dangerous mind-set for democracy. In 2011, when President Museveni was asked how he would react if Ugandans contested election results with demonstrations, Museveni responded that “we just lock them up ... bundle them into jail and bring them to the courts.” There you have it – a theoretical model for democracy. The maturation of region integration elsewhere in Africa is engulfed by both optimists and pessimists leaders, and scholars.  Empirically there are vast literature by both African and Africanist scholars which point out a dark picture about the prospects of getting it right in terms of bringing together different countries in a specific region in Africa. Dieter (1997) for example, writes: “in Africa, attempt to create regional integration prospect have a long, albeit discouraging history”. Odhiambo (1981) writing specifically about East Africa, shares the same view by arguing that: “when it comes to the question of African attempts at territorial politics, the experience is one of failure, or alternatively of inability”.  There are a few other scholars who concur with this trajectory (Hentz, 2005) writes: “Thus schemes in Africa such as the Economic Community of West African states and the East African Community adopted a blueprint from a very different place and time, and like others such schemes in sub Saharan Africa, they failed”.
These views are credible and can be substantiated by facts. For example west and central African states tried regional integration soon after gaining political independence from European colonizers but all these attempts failed. The French colonies of Mali and Senegal formed a federation but a few months later Senegal seceded from the federation and declared itself as the Republic of Senegal. In other areas Ivory Coast, Dahomey and Niger formed the council of the intent but this too collapsed (Melady, 1961). Patrice Lumumba of the present day the Democratic Republic of Congo and Kwame Nkrumah once contemplated combing DRC and Ghana, an idea that never materialized. Some of the post independence regional organization includes the West African Economic Community (WAEC) and the central African customs and Economic Union (CACEU), which were established in the 1960s later disintegrated too. Even the Pan African Freedom Movement of East, Central and Southern Africa (PAFMECSA) did not survive due to ideological differences among African leaders and their excitement about their newly found freedom from colonial rule. Thus the argument by the pessimists is tenable and can be substantiated
Increasingly, in spite of these features the spirit of regional integration did not die out amongst Africans. Consequently, when the East African Community territories their political independence in early 1960s they also tried to follow the same route by establishing the East African Community. Unfortunately, like its predecessor organization the EAC’s life was also ephemeral as it collapsed after a single decade. It is in this context therefore that the view expressed by those scholars who state that the African experience with regional integration or territorial politics is one of failure cannot be summarily refuted (Veit, 2010).
However it would be wrong to over generalized and argue that all attempts to establish regional institutions in post colonial Africa failed because some of these regional organizations are still operational even today.&
nbsp; Among these that have survived to date is the ECOWAS, established in 1976. In this paper we stand out to argue that the survival, development and prosperity of the current East African Community is totally dependent on the commitment of its member states to forming the political federation. Uniquely is the strategic status of Tanzania in promoting such development and prosperity within the East African Community.
Musonda (2006) is of the view that, Western European countries started experiencing regionalism in the 1950’s. From these countries, the project of regionalism spread to other parts of the world including Asia, Latin America, and Africa among others. The formation of the European Economic Community EEC   and later the signing of the Treaty of Maastricht in 19936 ushered in a big leap as far as European integration was concerned. These were to later emerge as case studies of successful regional integration. The change of name from EEC to EU signified the expansion growth the union was undergoing. These developments were not only political, but also economic, social, cultural and linguistic changes. The institutions created under this community played a significant role in strengthening and buttressing the community to what it is today. That the EU integration is developed to the extent of having a full legal system and jurisprudence is pointer to how successful integration can be. A reference to EU law8 which has become part of comparative legal studies across the world is one such proof. Among the EU laws are legislations on and provisions of the EU treaty on immigration, visa regulation, and free movement of persons within the union9 and outside the union who are citizens of member states or non members. A study of this EU law will reveal the impact of the aforesaid law on integration in the EU.
Materials and Methods
The materials used in this paper are secondary because the investigation is purely descriptive in nature. The qualitative analysis of the article, books and journal on similar debates forms the base for key arguments in this article. The documentary data reinforced qualitative information obtained in scholarly literature on the EACs’ enlarged membership and its implication in term of effectiveness and efficiency to achieve the integration objectives. In this case it is a mixed methodology that intended to capture the whole information on the effectiveness of EAC to bring about strong or weak integration with respect of its intention of adding more members anticipated the DRC and Somalia while Sudan is already acceptable and received as new member.
Figure 1: Conceptual Framework
Source: Authors’ Creativity
The figure 1 shows a conceptual framework with varies variable pointing to the challenges and prospect of a multiplication of members in the EAC.  The dependent variable in this model are the members of the EAC currently which  include Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Southern Sudan and Burundi, with future prospective members of Democratic Republic of Congo, and Somalia. The dependent variable as argued is a fragile or strong integrated future EAC in the sense of weakened bond or strong in terms of custom union, common market, monetary union, policy harmonization and indeed political federation. Such achievement of objective is totally dependent on the intervening variables in  the diagram which  include but not limited to a committed member to the vision and mission of the EAC which covers  implementation of  governance, the potentiality to contribute in the integration, the level of convergence criteria, geographical proximity and indeed  economic consideration. These variable if contravened the product to get a  is a weak, non proactive and fragile EAC.On the other side  observed the product  is a strong, proactive, and composed EAC, the one able to pursue and secure competitive advantage in the globalized environment.
 
Results and Discussion
This section assesses the potential tremors of the entry of the new Republic of Southern Sudan into the East African Community while debating the potential implication of entry of DRC in the EAC as aspirants to the same. The guiding principles in the assessment are the fundamental doctrines that govern the community and the conditionality laid down in the EAC for new entry in the integration.
The fundamental principles are laid down in Article six (6) of the EAC charter they include:
“ Mutual trust, political will, and sovereign equality; peaceful co-existence and good neighborliness; peaceful settlement of disputes; good governance including adherence to the principles of democracy, the rule of law, accountability, transparency, social justice, equal opportunity, gender as well as the recognition, promotion and protection of human and people’s rights;  equitable distribution of benefits and corporation for mutual benefits”
While the condition for admission of new members According to the EAC Treaty and rules of procedure for admission of a new country as full member, certain criteria have to be met. They include:
“acceptance of the community as set out in the treaty, adherence to the universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice, potential contribution to the strengthening of integration with the East African region, geographical proximity to and interdependence between it and EAC partner states, establishment and maintenance of a market driven economy, and compatibility of social and economic policies with those of the community”
Southern Sudan
About Southern Sudan results of the analysis show that currently, South Sudan does not satisfy conditions to be admitted as a full member of EAC. It faces serious development and governance challenges and many observers assert that it will take many years to achieve a sustained economic growth in this country (Mason, 2012). In addition, to benefit that accrues from regional integration, South Sudan needed first to solve many problems including the building of good leadership, security, peace and condition for sustainable and inclusive growth and development. In addition, the admission of South Sudan complicates the process leading up to th
e proposed EAC monetary union because the country is unlikely to satisfy the EAC convergence criteria.
 
 To analyze the potential implications of the entry of Southern Sudan into EAC, we examine if EAC including South Sudan may be a successful regional integration by considering factors which are key for the viability of a regional integration. These factors as explained by Ngowi (2009) include the number of countries composing a regional block which has implication on enforcement and coordination mechanism as well as other fundamentals such as political and economic factors. Southern Sudan applied on November 11, 2011 to join the EAC. The Summit directed the Council of Ministers to verify the application on the basis of the criteria for admission of a new member and submit recommendations to the summit at its 10th extraordinary meeting. It was on 3rd March 2016 that the country was admitted as new member in the EAC.
 
It is obvious reason that, the delay of about five years from 2011 to 2016 to approve Southern Sudan admission into EAC may have been complicated by the missing of good criteria for Southern Sudan to harmonize with the EAC treaty requirements. And we may agree to emphasize that, the recent inception of this new member to the EAC is a direct compromise and violation of the tenets and principles guiding the EAC. The acceptance of this member can also be viewed differently by considering the EAC countries interests which are seeking to benefit from Oil resources, expanded market from Southern Sudan. Likewise through comparative advantage analysis and economic technical spillover, Southern Sudan has a lot to gain than loosing when a member of the EAC becomes. By joining the EAC, the Republic of Southern Sudan expects to reduce its dependency on Sudan, especially for its external trade by finding alternative transport corridors. Currently, Southern Sudan has plans to build domestic refineries to export petroleum products to regional markets such as Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. The projects include construction of an oil refinery and sea port in Lamu (Kenya), a 1 400 km oil pipeline that will link Juba to Lamu port and construction of a new Mombasa-Kampala standard rail way line. Important investment is also being made in a 1 130 km road to link Nairobi to Juba.
 These projects are expected to serve Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Eastern Congo, Southern Sudan and Ethiopia and likely to attract more FDI, especially from Asia’s economic giants (Japan and China). Kenya and Uganda are particularly expected to benefit from the thousands of jobs that the large infrastructure projects are expected to create. Becoming a member of EAC, South Sudan may benefit from all arrangements under the EAC customs union and common market agreements as a new country that needs to build the foundation for its social and economic development. Being member of EAC may also provide the new country opportunities to increase market size reduce transaction costs and increase economic efficiency by implementing common policies with other EAC members. In addition, this may provide opportunities for mobilizing the human and financial resources necessary to undertake investments supporting trade expansion and economic development. It would also provide an overall supportive policy framework that helps to increase policy transparency, stability and enhance policy credibility and build institutions that match the EAC standards contrary to original members which have to adjust existing institutions to the regional requirements.
 
However, for these expectations to be realized, South Sudan needs first to solve many problems including the building of good leadership, security, peace and condition for sustainable and inclusive growth and development. Good leadership is key for economic growth and development, since sustainable growth requires committed, credible and capable government (Commission on Growth and Development, 2008). Indeed, sustainable growth and economic development does not just happen, it must be consciously chosen as an objective by the country’s leadership and as an organizing principle of the country’s politics (Kigabo, 2010).
 
Sound governance reduces the potential for corruption and lessens the risk that scarce public resources become diverted from their intended purpose. The Government of south Sudan has while a member establish good governance practices and improve the human capacity for credibility and effectiveness of overall development efforts in the medium to longer term. The country needs to establish and strengthen the basic principles of accountability, transparency, integrity, inclusion and professionalism as applied to the operation of government systems and administration. Another challenge for South Sudan as member of the EAC is its ability to face the completion in a common market with free movements of capital, labor, persons, services and right of establishment given that its economic development and institutions are at their infancy.
Based on these challenges, it is clear that for the moment, South Sudan was not a relevant candidate to joined EAC. Indeed, according to the EAC Treaty and rules of procedure for admission of a new country as full member, certain criteria were to be yet met by South Sudan to be a member. They include: acceptance of the community as set out in the treaty, adherence to the universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice, potential contribution to the strengthening of integration with the East African region, geographical proximity to and interdependence between it and EAC partner states, establishment and maintenance of a market driven economy, and compatibility of social and economic policies with those of the community (EAC Treaty).
 
As mentioned, the analysis of the implications of the entry of Southern Sudan into EAC is done by considering factors such as the number of countries composing a regional block as well as other fundamentals, which are key for a viable regional integration. Contrary the traditional K-group theory argues that more participants lower the benefits of cooperation as it increase the enforcement problem (Olson, 1965). The enforcement mechanism is very important because to build viable regional integration countries have to agree on surveillance and enforcement mechanisms for convergence criteria. The experience shows that, whereas there are some examples of regional organizations that started small and have been successful, there are no cases of large regional organizations that have achieved the same level of regional integration (EDB, 2010) showing that starting out with few states is a better strategy for regional integration. In the case of South Sudan and EAC, the main issue here may not be a big number of countries forming the EAC, but the disparities between South Sudan and the rest of EAC members because several domestic characteristics of state influence the success of regional integration.
The differences in economic and socio development fundamentals between South Sudan and the rest of EAC country members can do more to hamper the cooperation in EAC than the number of members itself. In addition, the lack of sufficient capacity (political, human resources...) to implement the obligations of membership in EAC may negatively affect the EAC regional integration efforts. The admission of South Sudan complicates the process leading up to the proposed EAC monetary union. The country is unlikely to satisfy the convergence criteria that are intended as pre-requisites to joining monetary union. Hence, South Sudan has joined the EAC, and if the existing members want to continue to fast-track monetary union, then necessarily there will be a two-speed process, with a first group proceeding to monetary union and South Sudan and perhaps others joining the monetary union later, if at all.
 
As indicated, the domestic socio economic conditions of South Sudan are far from those of other EAC countries and this limits the success in regional integration (Russet, 1967), especially the monetary union because these countries cannot form an optimum currency area. This will limit the effectiveness of the EAC central bank monetary policy. Another issue concerns South Sudan’s reliance on oil revenues for financing government and as a source of export receipts. The volatility of world oil prices means that this induces considerable fluctuations on the domestic economy. In a common currency area, these fluctuations spill over to the partner countries. If the country is large enough to influence the monetary policy and exchange rate of the currency area, then it may cause “Dutch disease” problems for its neighbors (see Masson, 2012) that is appreciation of the real exchange rate that crowd out other sectors, in particular manufacturing and agriculture. With Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda also with prospects for exploiting oil and gas discoveries, South Sudan may however not be the outlier.
 
DRC Prospective New Member
The DRC Records indicate that there have been tremendous incidences of conflict in the region and believed that an estimated over five million (5.4) Congolese died as a result of the conflicts in the last decade (Rupiya, 2005).These conflicts are associated with many factors as Sengati (2012) discusses them ranging from lack of democracy, scramble for resources, poor administrative system, external forces interests, ethnicity and scramble for power. Besides, Bellamy (2004) argue that, the critical factors involved in the conflict, among others, are external forces in the DRC, which are said to include Rwanda, Uganda, Belgium, and the United States of America. These conflict actors have acted differently at varied times in the conflict. For example, the United States, generally, has had a lower profile than some of the other key international actors in the DRC, especially, since the genocide in Rwanda in 1994(Gilbert, 2009).
For more than a decade, many people in DRC   felt that Washington saw its policy toward the DRC as secondary to and defined by, its relationship with and policies toward Rwanda. In this case, the sceneries in DRC is contrary to the founding principles of the treaty establishing the EAC, furthermore contrary to the conditionality of admission of new members that call for “adherence to the universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice“ .  Otherwise, the risk of having DRC into the EAC conflict the interests of big nations like the USA in the DRC, therefore as EAC pushes ahead rebuilding itself to the potentially entry of DRC this could retard such efforts if interests of big nations could be jeopardized in the course of inviting the DRC in the integration. Stephen (2008) argued that, the USA huge investment in the DRC in terms of minerals and other trades in timber are amazing that has a close eye in social, political and economic progress in DRC.
Furthermore Just like Southern Sudan, DRCfaces serious development and governance challenges and many observers assert that it will take many years to achieve a sustained economic growth in this country. In addition (Kamala, 2012) argue that, to benefit from regional integration, DRC needs first to solve many problems including the building of good leadership, security, peace and condition for sustainable and inclusive growth and development. In addition, the admission of DRC would complicate the process leading up to the proposed EAC monetary union because the
country is unlikely to satisfy the EAC convergence criteria. Despite such huddles the DRC has the positive trend towards political stability since 2000, as well as the implementation of   economic and structural reforms backed by the development partners have contributed to the gradual consolidation of the country’s macro-economic framework.
However, this positive trend of the macro-economic aggregates has not been accompanied by an improvement in the country’s social indicators, since economic growth has been driven by a very small number of areas of activity in sectors with little job creation. The DRC is also faced with the episodic and recurrent resurgence of political and security tensions that are sources of vulnerability. This situation underscores the fragility of this Central African giant and the need for the country’s authorities to speed up institutional, economic and social reforms with a view to creating the necessary conditions for lasting peace, sustained and inclusive economic growth before joining the EAC.
The specific characteristics of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) provide it with both challenges and opportunities that determine its long -term potential if accepted in the EAC. With an area of 2.34 million square kilometers and a population of about 71 million inhabitants, the DRC has the continent’s fourth largest population and is the second biggest in terms of area these two provide market and land for investment for the East African countries.
 
 According to Nduku, (2002) the DRC is located at the crossroads of the continent; it shares common borders with nine other countries (Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Zambia, Angola, Uganda, Central African Republic, and Sudan, Congo Brazzaville, ). It has significant natural resources and has some of the largest reserves in sub-Saharan Africa. However, DRC remains a fragile country that is slowly recovering from over two decades of political and economic instability. It continues to face rebellions threatening to its institutions and the population’s security. The country’s specificities provide it with unrivalled economic and social development opportunities, but also entail enormous challenges in terms of security and peace, central government’s Capacity and authority, decentralization and political economic governance. The 2011-2015 Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRSP) adopted by the government in November 2011 recognizes these challenges and aims to lift the country out of its fragile situations and ensure it is firmly anchored on a path towards development, commensurate with its potential.
 
Based on these challenges, it is clear that for the moment, the Democratic Republic of Congo is not a relevant candidate to join the EAC. Indeed, according to the EAC Treaty and rules of procedure for admission of a new country as full member, certain criteria are not met by the DRC to join EAC they include: acceptance of the community as set out in the treaty, adherence to the universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice, potential contribution to the strengthening of integration with the East African region, geographical proximity to and interdependence between it and EAC partner states, establishment and maintenance of a market driven economy, and compatibility of social and economic policies with those of the community (EAC Treaty). An analysis of these in relation to the DRC shows that, it has not met such criteria and therefore a spoiler member if incepted in the EAC integration.
 
 
Conclusion
 
This paper assessed the implications of the entry of the Republic of Southern Sudan as a new member into the East African Community and the prospective entry of the DRC in the same integration scheme. According to the EAC Treaty and rules of procedure for admission of a new country as full member, certain criteria have to be met. They include: acceptance of the community as set out in the treaty, adherence to the universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice, potential contribution to the strengthening of integration with the East African region, geographical proximity to and interdependence between it and EAC partner states, establishment and maintenance of a market driven economy, and compatibility of social and economic policies with those of the community ( EAC Treaty). Currently, Southern Sudan and indeed DRC do not satisfy these conditions and can’t be considered as relevant candidate for the EAC despite a recent admission of South Sudan in the respective integration. These countries face serious development and governance challenges and many observers (Rupiya, 2005; Sengati, 2012; Bellamy,2004; and Gilbert, 2009), assert that it will take many years to achieve a sustained economic growth in these countries. The countries need to adopt and implement principles of governance, establish and maintain a market driven economy as well as efficient social and economic policies before expecting to gain advantage from its EAC membership. Since Southern Sudan has become member of the EAC, just like DRC is a potential member of EAC, it may benefit from all arrangements under the EAC customs union and common market, mobilize the human and financial resources necessary to undertake investments supporting trade expansion and economic development and limit its dependency to Sudan and other states for the external trade.
 
However, to benefit from regional integration, Southern Sudan just like DRC needs first to solve many problems including the buil
ding of good leadership, security, peace and condition for sustainable and inclusive growth and development. EAC countries may benefit from the important economic resources, especially the oil from South Sudan and reliable market and natural resources in the DRC. However, the admission of South Sudan and other fragile countries like DRC and Somalia would complicate the process leading up to the proposed EAC monetary union because these countries are unlikely to satisfy the EAC convergence criteria. That is why in this paper we anticipate a very fragile EAC, a community that is skeptical to attainment of its set objective in the EAC Treaty of 2002. The admission of Southern Sudan and a prospective admission of the Democratic Republic of Congo in the EAC integration seem to be politically motivated rather than strategically calculated to bring genuine development in the EAC.
 
Recommendations
The paper commends for a genuine recommitment of the EAC to its founding doctrines on admission of new entry in the integration, because the main issue here may not be a big number of countries forming the EAC, but the disparities between South Sudan and DRC to the rest of EAC members in the sense that, several domestic characteristics of state, influence the success of regional integration. Therefore such politically motivated and membership interests rather than envisioned long-term calculated reasons for admission should be avoided in the process of building a composed and prosperous EAC for the furtherance of the future EAC.
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